US Stock Market Expert Predicts Surprising Result for 2024 Presidential Poll Based on Indices Movement

US Stock Market Expert Predicts Surprising Result in Presidential Poll Based on Indices Movement

As the US election scheduled for 5 November 2024 approaches, the competition between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is heating up. While polls have shown a tight race between the two candidates, some experts are turning to the stock market for insights into who may come out on top.

According to recent surveys of prediction markets, the probabilities of President Joe Biden winning reelection have ranged from below 38% to as high as 76%. However, a recent Economist survey has revealed that Trump holds a slightly higher chance of winning the poll at 45% compared to Biden’s 44%.

In an effort to gain alternative insights into the election outcome, stock market expert Mark Hulbert conducted an analysis that focused on various economic, financial, and sentiment indicators. Among these indicators, only the stock market has shown a significant correlation with the incumbent party’s likelihood of victory, with a statistically significant correlation at the 95% confidence level.

Hulbert’s analysis found that based on the year-to-date performance of the stock market, President Biden’s chances of winning re-election stand at 58.8%. This prediction is based on historical data dating back to 1896, which supports the correlation between stock market performance and election outcomes.

Despite the use of electronic prediction markets in forecasting election results, Hulbert argues that the track record of the stock market in predicting election outcomes surpasses that of other prediction instruments. With limited sample sizes and historical data, the stock market’s performance has proven to be a reliable indicator of the election outcome.

As the election draws closer, the stock market’s performance leading up to Election Day will play a crucial role in determining the final outcome. Stay tuned for further updates as the race between Biden and Trump continues to unfold.