Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Rising Expenses: A Threat to American Express’s Strong Q1 Earnings Growth?

As American Express (AXP) gears up to unveil its Q1 2024 earnings on April 19, industry experts are closely monitoring whether increased operational costs could overshadow its anticipated earnings surge. Analysts project a notable 25% increase in earnings per share, reflecting robust financial health, but escalating expenses remain a concern.

Earnings Overview:

The consensus among market analysts suggests that American Express is poised to report a substantial increase in its first-quarter earnings, with projections indicating a jump from $2.40 to $3 per share. This estimate, refined slightly upward by a penny over the last week, signals potential strong performance bolstered by a 10.3% rise in projected revenues to $15.8 billion.

Historical Performance and Current Expectations:

Historically, American Express has shown a mixed track record, surpassing earnings estimates in half of the past four quarters. Last quarter, the company reported earnings slightly below expectations at $2.62 per share, primarily due to higher costs related to customer engagement and compensation. However, these were partially offset by gains in net interest income and card member spending, which are anticipated to have continued positively impacting the first quarter of 2024.

Key Revenue Drivers:

Expected increases in network volumes and card member spending are among the primary growth drivers this quarter. Specifically, the company is likely to benefit from a 5.4% increase in total network volumes, alongside a 5.9% rise in discount revenues, supported by resilient consumer spending. Moreover, the Travel and Entertainment (T&E) sector is projected to maintain its growth trajectory, further enhancing revenue from associated fees and commissions.

Challenges and Cost Pressures:

Despite these positive indicators, American Express faces significant headwinds due to rising costs associated with enhanced card member services, marketing efforts, and an expected increase in provisions for credit losses. These factors could potentially compress profit margins, making it challenging to achieve an earnings beat this quarter.

Earnings Predictions:

Current forecasts do not strongly favor an earnings beat for American Express, as indicated by an Earnings ESP of -0.70%. The company holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting a cautious outlook on its ability to exceed market expectations this quarter.


As The Pipa News closely watches American Express’s financial disclosure, the balance between its revenue growth and escalating costs will dictate the narrative for its first-quarter performance. Investors and market watchers alike await to see if the company can navigate its cost challenges effectively while maintaining its growth momentum in a volatile economic environment. Stay tuned to The Pipa News for detailed updates and expert analyses on these developments.

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