In a new study set to be unveiled next weekend, 57% of top infectious disease experts forecast that an evolving flu virus could spark the next significant global pandemic, surpassing even the mysterious Disease X in its potential impact, according to a report from the Guardian.
An imminent release from an international research effort has pinpointed the influenza virus as the most likely initiator of the world’s next major pandemic. This study, conducted by Cologne University’s Jon Salmanton-Garcia, underscores the flu’s persistent mutation and adaptation, which poses a continuous threat despite seasonal containment efforts.
“Each winter brings its own mini-pandemics of influenza, which are generally managed due to the non-virulent nature of the strains. However, the potential for a more severe outbreak remains a looming concern,” explained Salmanton-Garcia. The detailed findings are slated for presentation at the forthcoming European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Congress in Barcelona.
The study also sheds light on Disease X — a placeholder name for an as-yet-unknown pathogen that could cause a serious pandemic. While 21% of the surveyed experts see Disease X as a considerable threat, they rank it behind the flu in terms of immediate pandemic potential. This unknown pathogen, akin to historical emergencies like COVID-19 and Ebola, represents a significant wildcard in global health planning.
The World Health Organization has highlighted the unpredictable nature of Disease X since 2018, emphasizing the vast array of potential pathogens and the limited resources available for disease research and development. This disparity underscores the importance of vigilance and preparedness in the face of emerging infectious threats.
This comprehensive survey of global disease specialists not only outlines the risks posed by known diseases but also stresses the importance of readiness for unforeseen health crises. As the world continues to grapple with the fallout of recent pandemics, the insights from this study could be crucial in steering future global health strategies and responses.